canada goose black friday sale France seen moving towards bank bailout

buy canada goose jacket PARIS (Reuters) Investors and analysts who think a government bailout for the troubled French banking sector is increasingly likely are focusing on what form any aid Canada Goose Coats On Sale could take, even as banks continue to deny they cheap canada goose uk need state help.

Canada Goose Outlet People walk in front of Canada Goose sale a branch of French BNP Paribas canada goose clearance sale bank in Marseille, September 13, 2011. REUTERS/Jean Paul Pelissier

canada goose deals The possibility of a bailout Canada Goose online jumped from speculation canada goose factory sale to something much more concrete at the weekend after Bank of France Chairman Christian Noyer said canadian goose jacket in an interview that a support mechanism set up in 2008 could be used to shore up banks capital in case of an event.

On Monday, at least five different analyst research notes discussed the increasing likelihood of a government move to inject capital into BNP Paribas, Societe Generale and Credit Agricole.

believe the longer the crisis continues, the greater the likelihood that the canada goose coats on sale French government will opt canada goose uk shop for some form of market therapy to reintroduce confidence in the French banks viability, said HSBC analysts in one.

All three banks surged on Monday, tracking a broader canada goose uk black friday rally in European banks, whose shares have been hammered in recent months. Societe Generale, for example, had lost 57 percent in the three months through Friday, while Credit Agricole was down 55 percent over the canada goose uk outlet same period.

canada goose coats sentiment that the (French) state is there to support the banks canada goose if needed explains the rebound even if the banks say they have no need for it, said Frederic Rozier, a fund manager at Meeschaert Asset Management.

All three banks have continued to deny uk canada goose that any bailout is needed or being planned, but as Nomura analyst Jon Peace said in a research note on Monday, there were also strenuous denials in 2008 until just days before the French government moved in with a recapitalization plan.

buy canada goose jacket cheap FLEXIBILITY At the time, with financial markets rattled by the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the French Canada Goose Online state made available 360 billion euros ($487 billion) for the banks, 40 billion of which was for strengthening their capital base, while another 320 billion helped them refinance via a public entity called the SFEF.

Canada Goose sale Several banking sources have buy canada goose jacket said they had heard private rumblings that a state injection of preference shares interest bearing instruments half way between debt and equity was being discussed, though how concretely was unclear.

cheap Canada Goose shares give more flexibility canada goose black friday sale to design it in the way they want, said one Paris based banker late last week, adding that the government would need to pull the trigger at the right time.

can only do that when you are really at the bottom, he said, noting buy canada goose jacket cheap that otherwise further share declines could undermine the confidence boost provided by the intervention.

canada goose coats on sale Assya economist Marc Touati pointed to a potential political hurdle too: France do this unilaterally without Europe?

canada goose clearance In the government last rescue after the 2008 financial crisis, the banks raised capital by selling preferred shares that were not convertible into ordinary shares.

BNP Paribas sold 5.1 billion euros worth and Societe Generale raised 3.4 billion from the government.

canada goose store be effective in 2011 to reduce concerns about euro zone default, we believe much higher amounts would be needed, Nomura Peace wrote.

Some form of injection that does uk canada goose outlet not involve common shares is likely because the French government does not want Canada Goose Parka to get involved in day to day management decisions at the banks, RBS analysts wrote in a note.

Canada Goose Parka said, there may well be political pressure in some French Canada Goose Outlet quarters to consider common equity injections, they added.

Canada Goose Jackets Touati said France did not have the means to take direct stakes in its banks. would be a risk to its AAA (rating) and would also only serve to bulge the government debt pile.

Assuming common equity is not involved, and preference shares or some kind of subordinated debt are used, the French government would likely reap a healthy return; the preferred shares issued after the 2008 crisis paid an 8 percent coupon.

BNP Paribas and Societe Generale would clearly like to avoid state intervention and to that end have both announced plans to unload tens cheap Canada Goose of billions canada goose store of assets to free up capital.

SUPPORT EYED Another form of intervention that would fall short of a capital injection would be some form of support in which the government would provide guarantees for senior debt, similar to canada goose outlet online those canada goose coats provided by the 2008 SFEF facility.

canada goose clearance sale Still, any kind of French move to revive its banks could fall short given euro zone strains hitting funding conditions.

canadian goose jacket Investors fear if Greece problems spread to Spain, Italy and elsewhere it will require Europe bailout fund to be bloated to around 2 trillion euros and it would need well over 100 billion euros of extra capital to be canada goose clearance pumped into banks.

Euro zone banks would require a minimum of 112 billion euros of capital if they took losses on Canada Goose Jackets sovereign bonds and assuming no macroeconomic deterioration, said Kian Abouhossein, analyst at JPMorgan. create a cushion, 150 billion euros is a more likely scenario, he said.

canada goose Additional reporting by Lionel Laurent, Juliette Rouillon, Sophie Sassard, Nicholas Vinocur and Steve Slater; Editing by Helen Massy Beresford.

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